The APP Bulletin

Africa is rising and African economies are growing faster than those of almost any other region in the world. However, the current pattern of trickle-down growth is not benefitting many people stuck in a spiral of poverty. Indeed, benefits measured by poverty reduction, maternal mortality and childhood survival fall far short of what Africans have a right to expect.

Last week’s Guardian news story on UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s role in a post 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) committee, highlighted the importance of making a no-holds-barred push to meet the current MDG targets, in Africa and elsewhere. While many African countries have registered significant advances during the past decade, overall the continent will miss 2015 goals by a wide margin at the current rate.

Deepening and consolidating the democratic transformations taking place in Africa, as well as strengthening regional and global governance arrangements, remain key challenges for African countries. As two recent developments in West Africa demonstrate, the prospect of collapse remains an ever-present threat, even in countries deemed to be role models in the practice of democracy. Some believe that this is consistent with American political scientist Larry Diamond’s thesis that democracy is receding around the world.

Partnerships that pool the resources, capacities and experience of a wide range of actors around a specific challenge can drive African progress. This is the central message of this year’s Africa Progress Report.

Why do women still not have equal rights or full political participation after 100 years of celebrating International Women’s Day?  One hundred years ago (and in many places, even more recently) these values were radical ideas, and although there has been much progress made there remains reason to be concerned.

With at least 18 elections coming up, we have known for quite some time that 2011 would be an important year for African democracy. The momentous events of January alone have shown that it may be more, possibly even the beginning of another wave of democratization – it would be the fourth and could be the most powerful. Yes, there still is the despicable stalemate in Cote d’Ivoire and what Mo Ibrahim called democratic recessions in many African countries, but the peaceful referendum in South Sudan, the revolution in Tunisia and the unprecedented protests in Egypt are signs that the information age has changed the dynamics of accountability and increased the pressure on governments to deliver results for all citizens, not just a narrow elite of friends and extended family.

Elections have recently been held in several African countries. On the surface, this appears good news indeed. Even though postponed seven times, Cote d’Ivoire’s first election since the civil war has seen most of the country turn out to vote. The first democratic election in Guinea is giving the country the chance to put its coup-ridden history behind it and start afresh. And in both Tanzania and the Comoros, the well-run elections are encouraging signs of democratic consolidation.

Expectations around the MDG Summit were low, given global economic and financial woes. In terms of commitments announced, including to and by Africa, they were met. The question now is how ‘hard’ the commitments are, whether they are new or ‘recycled’, whether they will be implemented, and who will hold those making them to account.

This week in Kampala, the AU Summit’s main session on its central theme ‘Maternal, Child and Infant Health and Development in Africa’, was allotted a three hour slot but ended up lasting a day and a half. Over 35 African heads of state, international partners (including several heads of UN agencies), civil society and the media debated the many health challenges in Africa. The profile of MDGs 4 & 5 was raised to an unprecedented level.

The situation in Sudan is alarming. Worst case scenarios are unfolding – boycotts, vote rigging, intimidation, security breakdowns and increased levels of violence. Huge amounts of money and political energy are being spent on an exercise that may not yield benefits for her people or the region. Mounting free and fair elections, the first in over two decades, in the face of massive logistical hurdles, and in Africa’s largest country, was never going to be easy. Voters, a vast number of whom are illiterate, have to fill in a minimum of eight ballot papers, some 12, each one with a dozen or more candidates. The scope for confusion, manipulation and fraud is massive.

That ODA levels are not increasing in line with Gleneagles outcomes is alarming; many donors are postponing or walking away from their pledges.

President Obama has made two major speeches on African soil recently, one in Cairo, one in Accra. Reactions to the latter have varied widely, from the ecstatic, particularly in Ghana itself, to the sceptical. Kenyans are of course piqued. Some on the continent even saw the choice of Ghana as based upon its recent oil discoveries, missing his intent.

Most people agree that economic growth depends upon a vibrant private sector. But when it comes to Africa, there remains a degree of schizophrenia about the role of business.

Positive trends over the last decade are being severely challenged in Africa. Economic contraction is affecting growth and poverty reduction, investment and aid levels. But there are worrisome signs on the political front too.

The election of Barrack Obama is generating great hopes in Africa and among those pressing for maintenance and even increase of development assistance by rich countries to Africa. However, as in other G8 and OECD countries, the domestic economy is his top priority. Notwithstanding our own and others, efforts, it may be some time before the Obama administration feels able to match the increases in assistance to Africa overseen by its predecessor. The prospect is of low cost development initiatives – rationalization of US development architecture, for example.